Wales’ population fell slightly, new UK comparison shows
Archive article. Published on Thu 1 Oct, 19:10. Conditions may have changed since this reporting.
Wales was the only UK nation with an estimated population decrease in the year to mid-2025, according to a UK-wide comparison published by the Office for National Statistics on 1 October. The estimate puts Wales at 3,175,200 residents, down around 2,800, or 0.09%. ONS cautions that revisions could change both the size and direction of such a small movement.
What is new in this release?
The Welsh figures were first published on 29 July. Today’s bulletin brings the four nations together; it does not measure a fall during this week or during 2026. The estimates describe the usually resident population on 30 June 2025. The Welsh Government’s July report said this was the first estimated decrease since 2014 to 2015. Its accompanying historical figures were revised, so comparisons should use the updated series.
How Wales compares
England, Scotland and Northern Ireland each recorded an increase. The chart shows the percentage changes, allowing countries of very different sizes to be compared.
Cover Wales chart from ONS Table 1, released 1 October 2026. Estimates are subject to revision. Data: ONS, NRS and NISRA, as compiled by ONS.
Photo: Cover Wales; data compiled by ONSOriginal photographCC BY 4.0
Why the Welsh total fell
There were around 35,600 deaths and 26,500 births in Wales over the year, according to the Welsh Government’s report. Migration still added people: net international migration was around 1,700, and net movement from elsewhere in the UK was around 4,900. Those gains did not offset the wider decline. Net migration is arrivals minus departures, not the number arriving alone. These selected, rounded components are not a complete reconciliation of the headline change.
A national fall does not describe every town
Newport’s estimated population rose 0.7%, while Swansea’s fell 0.5%. Across Wales, seven of the 22 council areas grew. The age profile also matters: around 22.2% of residents were 65 or older. A small change in the national total can therefore sit alongside different local demands for housing, schools and care.
What the estimates cannot settle
ONS advises caution with small differences, especially in smaller areas. These figures support service planning; they do not establish what will happen to any individual school, hospital or neighbourhood. Future revisions remain part of the picture.
Background and supporting figures
Where this sits
A small estimated decline is not a settled future trend: ONS explicitly says revisions may change both size and direction for Wales.
Wales total fell while migration remained a positive contribution. Net migration is not the count of arrivals; births and deaths and local differences matter.