Survey estimates 48.3% of children can speak Welsh, with caution over trend

An estimated 48.3% of children aged three to 15 in Wales could speak Welsh in the year ending June 2026, according to the latest Annual Population Survey release. That represents about 234,300 children. The Welsh Government’s release, published on 21 October, says this age group remains more likely to report being able to speak Welsh than any other. Its estimated percentage has nevertheless generally fallen since the beginning of 2019.

What the figures measure

Across everyone aged three and over, the survey estimates 845,200 Welsh speakers, or 27.4%. That is 0.2 percentage points above the estimate of 27.2% a year earlier. The release says that annual increase is not statistically significant. It also warns that a change in the way interviews were conducted affects comparison between the two periods. Children’s estimated rate is higher than the all-age figure. That comparison describes reported ability to speak Welsh, rather than how often people use it or whether they pass a fluency test.

Why the caution matters

The survey switched to telephone-only interviews in March 2020, with face-to-face interviews reintroduced in autumn 2023. Before the pandemic, people answering by telephone appeared more likely to say they could speak Welsh than those interviewed face to face. The release says it is not currently possible to establish whether recent changes reflect interview methods or real changes in language ability. It also warns that smaller samples and a lack of reweighting to the latest population estimates have increased uncertainty. Estimates for population subgroups are less reliable. These figures remain official statistics, but their accredited status has been removed. The government says they can still be used with appropriate caution.

A survey, not the census

The Welsh Government treats the population census as the key source for measuring the number of Welsh speakers. It says Annual Population Survey results should not be compared directly with census results or used to measure progress towards the target of one million speakers by 2050. Statistics about how frequently people speak Welsh are absent from this release while a calculation method is reviewed. The published estimates therefore cannot establish a change in daily Welsh-language use. Research linking survey, census and school data is continuing to investigate why these sources record language ability differently. The current figures do not establish a cause for the reported decline among children.