Public sector net zero by 2030 now highly unlikely, auditors say

Wales’s public sector is now highly unlikely to reach net zero by 2030, Audit Wales has found, four years after it first warned of clear uncertainty over the target. The follow-up report, published on 2 November, says reported emissions from Welsh public bodies reached 3.96 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2024-25. That is a 20% increase on 2021-22, although the auditors say better reporting explains part of the rise.

A lower priority

The report says decarbonisation has become a lower priority for public bodies, partly because of financial pressures, and is not fully built into day-to-day decisions. Bodies are not doing enough to work together. The 2030 collective ambition, set by the Welsh Government in 2021, has driven action but is poorly defined. Many public bodies described it as unachievable. The report also says the Welsh Government is not checking whether bodies are meeting the milestones in its Public Sector Route Map.

Where the emissions are

Supply chains dominate the picture. Scope 3 emissions, mostly from goods and services public bodies buy, made up 84% of the 2024-25 total. Emissions from buildings and vehicles that bodies control directly were 16%. The number of bodies reporting rose from 69 in 2021-22 to 82 in 2024-25, which makes the trend harder to read. For the 67 bodies that reported in both years, emissions still rose by 18%.

The cost

A study commissioned by the Welsh Government and the Welsh Local Government Association put the capital cost of decarbonising council buildings alone at at least £2.3 billion, from at least £49 million in Ceredigion to at least £218 million in Cardiff. Some bodies described longer-term costs as unaffordable. The Welsh Government has provided £144 million in loans and £84 million in grants for public sector decarbonisation between 2022-23 and 2025-26. The recommendations are aimed at the Welsh Government: clearer strategic direction, better emissions reporting and support for financial planning. Public bodies are asked to use a checklist in the report to review their own approach.