RCT faces £25.7m funding gap before council tax rises
Rhondda Cynon Taf Council is modelling a £25.7 million funding gap for 2027/28 before any council tax increase is counted. Cabinet approved the latest medium-term financial plan on 21 September, but it has not agreed specific service cuts.
RCT budget modelling for 2027/28
- 2% settlement
- £25.724m gap
- 3% settlement
- £20.159m gap
- 1% settlement
- £31.288m gap
- 3% council tax model
- £4.459m income
The base case assumes the Welsh Government settlement rises by 2% a year. On that basis, the gross gap is £25.724 million next year. A modelled 3% council tax rise would bring in about £4.459 million and reduce the remaining gap to £21.264 million.
Funding changes move the gap by millions
The report says every one percentage point change in the Welsh Government settlement is worth about £5.6 million to the council. A 3% settlement would leave a £20.159 million gross gap in 2027/28, while a 1% settlement would leave £31.288 million.
Across the three years to 2029/30, the base case produces a £72.947 million gross gap before council tax income. After the council's modelled 3% annual council tax increases, the combined gap is £59.164 million.
Services and staffing under review
The council says it will review every service to identify savings. Its report says services and jobs will be protected where possible, but revisions to some service arrangements and associated staffing levels are highly likely unless funding improves.
Possible areas include efficiency savings, workforce and property requirements, social services reform, preventative work and collaboration. Reducing service levels is described as a last resort. The report does not name a service for closure, set a redundancy figure or propose a council tax decision.
Schools remain a stated priority
The financial plan continues the council's policy of modelling school funding above the assumed Welsh Government settlement. The council says schools have been treated more favourably than other services, although final allocations will be decided through the budget process.
When the figures become clearer
The UK Budget is expected on 28 October, followed by the Welsh Government draft budget on 17 November and the provisional local government settlement. RCT must set a balanced 2027/28 budget by 11 March 2027. The council says it will publish further updates as those figures become available.